A precedent to navigate
Precedents provide a guide or example for action. When prices are low, buy. When prices are high, sell. Nighttime signals it is time to return home, have dinner, and go to bed. If this, then do that. Unprecedented opportunity exists outside these well-known maxims.
Precedents improve our aim by giving us an example of what has happened under similar conditions in the past. It would be challenging and time-consuming to deal with novel situations every time we tried to do something new. I can make pancakes because I have done it before. I know how long to cook them for and what it is supposed to look like when done. Before I knew how to make pancakes, I followed a recipe, someone showed me how, or I burned them. I was able to use precedents even when I didn’t have my own.
What happens when there is no precedent under which to operate? Unprecedented situations have not happened before or have not occurred in the combination presented. Without principles to function with, we are unsure of what action to take or what the results of our efforts will be.
The unprecedented creates uncertainty
The unprecedented facilitates uncertainty by removing guideposts. We rely on the circumstances, people, or signs that are unavailable. If you move to a new town never having moved before, then you are not sure what the experience will bring. If negative interest rates occur for the first time, what does that mean? What are the effects of the unprecedented?
Knowing all of the answers to the test beforehand makes it easy. It is uncertainty over what will be covered, asked, or quizzed that causes anxiety. Routines and habits create predictability. They develop a sense of control and indicate what to expect. Uncertainty disrupts this clarity. There are precedents for almost every situation. The universe has been around for a long time, many people have inhabited our planet, and they have dealt with numerous variations of most everything. Thus we have a precedent for most everything, ours or someone else’s. Not in the unprecedented.
Where uncertainty exists so too does opportunity
An unprecedented situation shatters understanding. The resulting change creates opportunity. Uncertainty is challenging, scary, and dealing with it is tough. The experts are no better at predicting the future than the layman. The fog obstructs the ability to see what is ahead. Within that haze lies opportunity.
When you’re in a gold rush, sell picks and shovels
Known opportunities do not tend to exist very long. If a billfold of cash is lying on the street, someone will pick it up. A risk-free possibility exists as long as it takes someone to understand it is there. A prospector finding gold in the Yukon signals there might be more. The gold rush ensues as people travel far and endure hardships to capture the opportunity. Many find the gold already pulled from the earth by those who acted before they were sure. An opportunity that is well understood is quickly swallowed up and commoditized.
For example, the creation of the internet was new and novel technology, a leap forward for human ingenuity. It was fresh and unique, but at first, not many people embraced the uncertainty associated with the potential for what it would become. The opportunity was there for those who would traverse the risk. Precedents developed as applications became evident. People came to understand the opportunity the internet presented, removing the uncertainty that it was a driver of progress.
Uncertainty creates variance. The range of outcomes contains positive outcomes without a clear path to obtaining them. In a situation without a defined cause and effect, where the correct course of action is unknown, or easily identifiable, the unprecedented, opportunity thrives.
Maximize opportunity in the uncertain
I am defining opportunity as exposure to desirable or positive outcomes. Positive outcomes may be different for each individual. It may be opening an ice cream shop on the beach is your premier outcome. You will operate in a manner to gather as much opportunity to open that ice cream shop. I enjoy ice cream (cookie dough fam stand up), but I don’t want to have to operate a stand. Opening an ice cream shop takes time away from my blog, can’t have that.
Maximizing opportunity is maximizing potential positive outcomes. Decide what is desirable to you, then do the work to pursue the opportunity. Maybe another opportunity presents itself that wasn’t apparent at the outset but revealed itself navigating the uncertainty. Someone who set off to explore uncharted territory is the first to recognize the glimmer of gold in a stream they are mapping.
Avoiding uncertainty is harmful
Safety at all costs does not reduce risk if it minimizes opportunity. Hibernating in times of uncertainty will awaken to a world moved on. People who chose not to use computers or the internet would have trouble keeping up today. The chase in the face of the unknown when others head for safety will lead to the possibility of capturing the opportunity others forgo. Less competition going after the same outcomes improves the odds of those in the arena.
Exposure to as much opportunity as possible is the best position as uncertainty turns into information. That information makes better-informed decisions about the remaining possibilities. Exploring a new software application to find opportunities teaches more about what the application can or can’t do. This cycle allows further exploration and so on in a positively reinforcing manner.
View the unprecedented through the lens of opportunity. Opportunities provide actions to take in new circumstances. When things are unsure, unclear, or up in the air, move forward with confidence by pursuing positive possibilities.
Embrace opportunity presented by the unprecedented
In most situations, people operate with clear indicators. Unprecedented circumstances do not have the luxury of previous examples. This lack of standards creates uncertainty. That leads to opportunities as new possibilities emerge. Additionally, others retreat to safety, improving the likelihood of realizing those opportunities. Embracing change is maximizing the probability of positive outcomes.
I hope the next time you find yourself without precedent to guide you, you will embrace the uncertainty. In this way, it is possible to create principles for operating under all circumstances. Was this helpful to you? If so, are there others you could share this post with to help them?
